Research Advance Publication
Performance of Multi-City Land Use Regression Models for Nitrogen Dioxide and Fine Particles
This EHP Advance Publication article has been peer-reviewed, revised, and accepted for publication. EHP Advance Publication articles are completely citable using the DOI number assigned to the article. This document will be replaced with the copyedited and formatted version as soon as it is available. Through the DOI number used in the citation, you will be able to access this document at each stage of the publication process.
Citation: Wang M, Beelen R, Bellander T, Birk M, Cesaroni G, Cirach M, Cyrys J, de Hoogh K, Declercq C, Dimakopoulou K, Eeftens M, Eriksen KT, Forastiere F, Galassi C, Grivas G, Heinrich J, Hoffmann B, Ineichen A, Korek M, Lanki T, Lindley S, Modig L, Mölter A, Nafstad P, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Nystad W, Olsson D, Raaschou-Nielsen O, Ragettli M, Ranzi A, Stempfelet M, Sugiri D, Tsai MY, Udvardy O, Varró MJ, Vienneau D, Weinmayr G, Wolf K, Yli-Tuomi T, Hoek G, Brunekreef B. Performance of Multi-City Land Use Regression Models for Nitrogen Dioxide and Fine Particles. Environ Health Perspect; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307271.
Received: 24 June 2013
Accepted: 30 April 2014
Advance Publication: 2 May 2014
For materials with complex tables, EHP offers “Alt 508″ versions optimized for use with screen-reading software.
Background: Land use regression (LUR) models have mostly been developed to explain intra-urban variations in air pollution based on often small local monitoring campaigns. Transferability of LUR models from city to city has been investigated, but little is known about the performance of models based on large numbers of monitoring sites covering a large area.
Objectives: To develop European and regional LUR models and to examine their transferability to areas not used for model development.
Methods: We evaluated LUR models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and Particulate Matter (PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance) by combining standardized measurement data from 17 (PM) and 23 (NO2) ESCAPE study areas across 14 European countries for PM and NO2. Models were evaluated with cross validation (CV) and hold-out validation (HV). We investigated the transferability of the models by successively excluding each study area from model building.
Results: The European model explained 56% of the concentration variability across all sites for NO2, 86% for PM2.5 and 70% for PM2.5 absorbance. The HV R2s were only slightly lower than the model R2 (NO2: 54%, PM2.5: 80%, absorbance: 70%). The European NO2, PM2.5 and PM2.5 absorbance models explained a median of 59%, 48% and 70% of within-area variability in individual areas. The transferred models predicted a modest to large fraction of variability in areas which were excluded from model building (median R2: 59% NO2; 42% PM2.5; 67% PM2.5 absorbance).
Conclusions: Using a large dataset from 23 European study areas, we were able to develop LUR models for NO2 and PM metrics that predicted measurements made at independent sites and areas reasonably well. This finding is useful for assessing exposure in health studies conducted in areas where no measurements were conducted.
CEHN July 2014 Article of the Month
“Outdoor Formaldehyde and NO2 Exposures and Markers of Genotoxicity in Children Living Near Chipboard Industries” (Environ Health Perspect; DOI:10.1289/ehp.1307259) has been selected by the Children’s Environmental Health Network (CEHN) as its July 2014 Article of the Month. These CEHN summaries discuss the potential policy implications of current children’s environmental health research.
Sign Up to Receive E-mail Alerts
Recent Advance Publications
- Effects of Developmental Activation of the AhR on CD4+ T-Cell Responses to Influenza Virus Infection in Adult Mice
- Prenatal and Postnatal Serum PCB Concentrations and Cochlear Function in Children at 45 Months of Age
- Variability in Temperature-Related Mortality Projections under Climate Change
- Environmental Health Research Recommendations from the Inter-Environmental Health Sciences Core Center Working Group on Unconventional Natural Gas Drilling Operations
- Residential Greenness and Birth Outcomes: Evaluating the Influence of Spatially Correlated Built-Environment Factors
- Effects of the Endocrine-Disrupting Chemical DDT on Self-Renewal and Differentiation of Human Mesenchymal Stem Cells
- Daily Mean Temperature and Clinical Kidney Stone Presentation in Five U.S. Metropolitan Areas: A Time-Series Analysis
- EHPNoonNews: CPSC advisory panel issues final report on phthalates http://t.co/xYyNKcx4gX @uscpsc
- EHPNoonNews: Novel single-cell method expected to provide insights on epigenetics http://t.co/UCljNJYT35 @genbio
- EHPNoonNews: Investigators identify genes that contribute to radiation resistance http://t.co/xcW9ugoKtc @asmicrobiology
- EHPNoonNews: Fight off food poisoning—food safety for warmer weather http://t.co/rKLY9s4bAk @nih
- EHPNoonNews: Air monitors provided for residents near Marcellus fracking sites http://t.co/EQ6Mdam4wM @oronline