Research Article Advance Publication
Environ Health Perspect; DOI:10.1289/ehp.1510109
Methods to Estimate Acclimatization to the Urban Heat Island Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality
PDF Version (757 KB)
Background: Investigators have examined whether heat mortality risk is increased in neighbourhoods subject to the urban heat island (UHI) effect, but not identified degree of difference in susceptibility to heat and cold between cooler and hotter area, which we call as acclimatization to the UHI.
Objectives: To develop methods to examine and quantify the degree of acclimatization to heat- and cold-related mortality in relation to UHI anomaly, then apply to London, UK.
Methods: Case-crossover analyses were undertaken on 1993-2006 mortality data from London UHI decile groups defined by anomalies from the London average of modelled air temperature at 1km grid resolution. We estimated how (i) UHI anomalies modified excess mortality on days cold and hot for London overall and (ii) displaced a fixed shape temperature-mortality function (‘shifted spline’ model). For each we also compared observed associations with those expected under no or full acclimatization to the UHI.
Results: The relative risk of death on hot compared to normal days differed very little across UHI decile groups. A 1oC UHI anomaly multiplied the risk of heat death by 1.004 (95% CI 0.950, 1.061) (interaction rate ratio) compared with 1.070 (1.057, 1.082) expected if there were no acclimatization. The corresponding UHI interaction for cold was 1.020 (0.979, 1.063) against 1.030 (1.026, 1.034) expected. Fitted splines for heat shifted little across UHI decile groups, again suggesting acclimatization. For cold, they shifted somewhat in the direction of no acclimatization, but not excluding acclimatization.
Conclusions: We have proposed two analytical methods for estimating the degree of acclimatization to the heat- and cold-related mortality burdens associated with UHI. The results for London suggest relatively complete acclimatization to the UHI effect on summer heat-related mortality, but less clear evidence for cold.
This EHP Advance Publication article has been peer-reviewed, revised, and accepted for publication. EHP Advance Publication articles are completely citable using the DOI number assigned to the article. This document will be replaced with the copyedited and formatted version as soon as it is available. Through the DOI number used in the citation, you will be able to access this document at each stage of the publication process.
Citation: Milojevic A, Armstrong BG, Gasparrini A, Bohnenstengel SI, Barratt B, Wilkinson P. Methods to Estimate Acclimatization to the Urban Heat Island Effects on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality. Environ Health Perspect; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1510109
Received: 21 April 2015
Accepted: 22 January 2016
Advance Publication: 9 February 2016
Note to readers with disabilities: EHP strives to ensure that all journal content is accessible to all readers. However, some figures and Supplemental Material published in EHP articles may not conform to 508 standards due to the complexity of the information being presented. If you need assistance accessing journal content, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org. Our staff will work with you to assess and meet your accessibility needs within 3 working days.
Supplemental Material PDF (577 KB)
Note to readers with disabilities: EHP has provided a 508-conformant table of contents summarizing the Supplemental Material for this article (see below) so readers with disabilities may determine whether they wish to access the full, nonconformant Supplemental Material. If you need assistance accessing this or any other content on this site, please contact email@example.com. Our staff will work with you to assess and meet your accessibility needs within 3 working days.
Supplemental Table of Contents PDF (132 KB)
Attention, Authors: New Submission System
EHP is now using Editorial Manager for manuscript submissions. All user accounts have been transferred to Editorial Manager—just log into Editorial Manager and reset your password. Editorial Manager offers an in-depth help index; for further questions, contact firstname.lastname@example.org. We hope you enjoy using our streamlined new submission system!
Sign Up to Receive E-mail Alerts
Recent Advance Publications
Urban Dust Microbiome: Impact on Later Atopy and Wheezing
Use of Cooking Fuels and Cataract in a Population-Based Study: The India Eye Disease Study
Particulate Air Pollution and Fasting Blood Glucose in Non-Diabetic Individuals: Associations and Epigenetic Mediation in the Normative Aging Study, 2000-2011
Persistent Organic Pollutants and the Association with Maternal and Infant Thyroid Homeostasis: A Multipollutant Assessment
A Systematic Comparison of Linear Regression-Based Statistical Methods to Assess Exposome-Health Associations