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Kristie L. Ebi¹ and Glenn McGregor²

¹ESS, LLC, Alexandria, Virginia, USA; ²The University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand

Abstract
Objective: Because the state of the atmosphere determines the development, transport, dispersion, and deposition of air pollutants, there is concern that climate change could affect morbidity and mortality associated with elevated concentrations of these gases and fine particles. We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM) , and what changing concentrations could mean for population health.

Data sources: We review studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and studies projecting the impacts of these changes on morbidity and mortality.

Data synthesis: Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty include the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given these uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, which would increase morbidity and mortality. Few projections are available for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, primarily because few studies have been conducted.

Conclusions: Additional research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution–related health impacts. If improved models continue to project higher ozone concentrations with climate change, then reducing greenhouse gas emissions would enhance the health of current and future generations.

Key words: air pollution, climate change, health impacts, ozone, particulate matter. Environ Health Perspect 116:1449–1455 (2008) .  doi:10.1289/ehp.11463 available via http://dx.doi.org/ [Online 10 July 2008]

Address correspondence to K.L. Ebi, ESS, LLC, 5249 Tancreti Lane, Alexandria, VA 22034 USA. Telephone: (703) 304-6126. E-mail: krisebi@essllc.org

The authors declare they have no competing financial interests.

Received 7 March 2008 ; accepted 9 July 2008.