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Research Article
1 May 1995

Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk.

Publication: Environmental Health Perspectives
Volume 103, Issue 5
Pages 458 - 464

Abstract

The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities.

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Information

Published In

Environmental Health Perspectives
Volume 103Issue 5May 1995
Pages: 458 - 464
PubMed: 7656875

History

Published online: 1 May 1995

Authors

Affiliations

W J Martens
National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
L W Niessen
National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
J Rotmans
National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
T H Jetten
National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
A J McMichael
National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.

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