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2017 Conference

Abstract Number: 268 | ID: 2017-268

Long Term Exposure to Black Carbon and Cardiovascular Mortality: A Study based on A Dynamic Three-Dimensional Exposure Model in an Elderly Cohort

Yang Yang(School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, China, yangy28@hku.hk), Linwei Tian(School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, China), Robert Tang(School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, China), Hong Qiu(School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, China), Poh-Chin Lai(School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, China), Thuan-Quoc Thach(School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, China), Ryan Allen(Faculty of Health Sciences, Simon Fraser University, Canada), Michael Brauer(School of Population and Public Health, University of British Columbia, Canada), Benjamin Barratt(MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health & NIHR GSTFT/KCL Biomedical Research Centre Analytical and Environmental Sciences Division, Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, King's College London, United Kingdom)
Background/Aim: It has been well documented that air pollution is linked to adverse cardiovascular and respiratory health effects. Nevertheless, there has only been a few epidemiologic studies focusing on health effects of long term exposure of black carbon (BC). In addition, most of the studies have not accounted for the 3 Dimensional landscapes in cities and mobility of the population. We aim to estimate BC based on a novel dynamic 3 dimensional (D3D) land use regression (LUR) model and assess the long-term effects on mortality in a large elderly cohort in Hong Kong.
Methods: We conducted a cohort study of BC and cardiovascular mortality among 66,820 subjects aged 65 years old or older in Hong Kong from 1998-2011. BC concentrations were estimated by LUR model and assigned to all participants based on their residential addresses at baseline periods, adjusted the vertical and dynamic components. Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality associated with BC.
Results: Statistically associations were observed not only for all natural causes mortality (HR=1.05; 95%CI: 1.03, 1.07) and cardiovascular disease (HR=1.1; 95CI%: 1.04, 1.17) but also for the two subcategories, IHD ( HR=1.11; 95%CI: 1.04, 1.17) and cerebrovascular disease ( HR=1.07; 95%CI: 1.01, 1.15) per IQR increase of BC.
Conclusions: This cohort study demonstrated that long-term exposure to ambient BC was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. These findings suggested that BC may play a role in the association between traffic related air pollutants and mortality.