The Societal Costs and Benefits of Commuter Bicycling: Simulating the Effects of Specific Policies Using System Dynamics Modeling

http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307250



Table 3. Cumulative outcomes projected from the simulation of active policy scenarios compared with the business-as-usual scenario.
Outcome RCN
(monetized)
ASBL (monetized) SER
(monetized)
ASBL + SER (monetized)
Abbreviations: LV, light vehicle; LVKT, light vehicle kilometers travelled. Numbers with a negative sign represent ­savings. Monetized figures are given in parentheses and are in millions of New Zealand dollars. Benefit–cost ratios are calculated from the net public health benefits and infrastructure costs shown.
Cycling mode share by 2051 (%) 5 20 5 40
LV mode share by 2051 (%) 75 65 55 40
Proportion of people considering cycling always/mostly safe by 2040 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.9
LVKT (billion km) –3.5 –7 –10 –18.5
Cyclist injuries        
Fatalities 200 (620) 360 (1,100) 85 (250) 250 (850)
Serious injuries 4,000 (1,300) 7,000 (2,300) 1,600 (500) 5,000 (1,600)
Car crashes        
Car occupant fatalities –70 (–220) –120 (–370) –170 (–527) –340 (–1,000)
Air pollution        
Mortality –10 (–7.5) –20 (–15) –40 (–30) –80 (–60)
Hospitalizations –5 (–0.02) –15 (–0.04) –20 (–0.06) –40 (–0.12)
COPD incidence –10 (–0.75) –30 (–2.25) –55 (–4) –90 (–6.75)
Restricted activity days –12,500 (–1) –37,200 (–4) –57,700 (–6) –112,200 (–11)
Air pollution total (–9) (–21) (–40) (–78)
All-cause mortality –650 (–2,000) –1,850 (–5,700) –650 (–2,000) –4,000 (–12,400)
Greenhouse gas emissions (megatons) –3 (–120) –8 (–360) –13 (–520) –26 (–1040)
Fuel cost ($NZ million) (–600) (–1,800) (–600) (–3,900)
Infrastructure cost ($NZ million) (45) (250) (380) (630)
Net benefit ($NZ million) –770 –2,550 –1,780 –13,090
Benefit–cost ratio 18 18 6 24