Commuting-Adjusted Short-Term Health Impact Assessment of Airborne Fine Particles with Uncertainty Quantification via Monte Carlo Simulation

http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408218



Table 3. Estimated values of ADA + B and ADA + C in the provincial capitals under the RS0 scenario: posterior medians, 80% CrIs, and probabilities that the “exported” attributable deaths exceed the “imported” ones.
City ADA + B (80% CrI) ADA + C (80% CrI) Pr(C > B)
Abbreviations: CrI, credibility interval; RS0, estimated AD due to annual average PM10 > 20 μg/m3; ADA + B, deaths among city residents attributable to PM10 exposure in the city or anywhere in the region; ADA + C, deaths among residents of the entire region attributable to the exposure in the city; Pr(C > B), probability that Ci (“exported” attributable deaths among non-residents due to exposure in city i) is larger than Bi (“imported” attributable deaths among residents of city i due to exposure outside of city i).
Bergamo 10.2 (0.5, 23.4) 10.8 (0, 25.3) 0.707
Brescia 12.0 (0.3, 36.5) 12.6 (0, 39.7) 0.608
Como 7.2 (0.3, 15.4) 7.5 (0, 16.5) 0.668
Cremona 6.2 (0.1,14.2) 6.5 (0, 14.9) 0.660
Lecco 2.0 (0.1,5.7) 2.1 (0, 6.2) 0.523
Lodi 4.0 (0.3, 8.5) 4.0 (0, 8.8) 0.494
Mantova 4.7 (0.1, 10.7) 5.1 (0, 12.0) 0.760
Milano 265.6 (143.8, 414.9) 283.8 (152.1, 443.7) 0.996
Pavia 6.4 (0.4, 15.6) 6.9 (0, 17.3) 0.668
Sondrio 1.0 (< 0.1, 2.6) 1.2 (0, 3.0) 0.758
Varese 4.9 (0.3, 12.0) 5.1 (0, 12.9) 0.645