Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166



Table 2. Median number of projected heat-related deaths in New York City across the 33 GCMs used in this study for the 2020s (2010–2039), 2050s (2040–2069) and 2080s (2070–2099) by Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), adaptation scenario and population scenario.
Period Population scenario RCP4.5 RCP8.5
No adaptation Low adaptation High adaptation No adaptation Low adaptation High adaptation
Heat adaptation scenarios include a) “high adaptation”: adaptation, as measured by RRmin or the minimal relative risk for a given temperature to be reached by the year 2100, projected to reach a value 80% lower than RR calculated at each degree Celsius (°C) during the 2000s; b) “low adaptation”: adaptation, as measured by RRmin or the minimal relative risk for a given temperature to be reached by the year 2100, projected to reach a value 20% lower than RR calculated at each degree Celsius during the 2000s; and c) “no adaptation”: future adaptation does not occur. Adaptation, as measured by RRmin or the minimal relative risk for a given temperature to be reached by the year 2100, remains the same as the RR calculated at each degree Celsius during the 2000s. Population scenarios included the following: a) “baseline” assumed that all parameters of the model remain constant; that is, age-specific fertility and mortality rates and age characteristics of migration are all kept constant, but the population ages forward; b) “decreased mortality” assumed a decrease in age-specific mortality rates such that the values reach 2/3 of the 2010 values by 2100; c) “increased in-migration” assumed that the growth of the domestic in-migration (from other parts of the United States to New York City) will be half of the growth of the U.S. population and that the growth of the international in-migration (from outside of the United States to New York City) will be half of the growth of the projected international in-migration nationwide; d) “increased out-migration” assumed that the rate of out-migration would increase by 25% over the projection period; and e) “constant” assumed that population and age of the population remain constant at the 2010 levels. For reference, there were 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006.
2020s Baseline 492 412 191 549 460 215
2050s Baseline 1,084 891 267 1,449 1,196 365
2080s Baseline 1,348 1,109 308 2,893 2,407 698
2020s Decreased mortality 472 395 184 527 442 207
2050s Decreased mortality 1,001 823 247 1,339 1,104 338
2080s Decreased mortality 1,205 991 275 2,585 2,151 624
2020s Increased in-migration 497 416 193 555 465 217
2050s Increased in-migration 1,151 946 283 1,539 1,270 387
2080s Increased in-migration 1,552 1,277 354 3,331 2,771 804
2020s Increased out‑migration 489 409 190 546 457 214
2050s Increased out‑migration 1,040 855 257 1,391 1,147 351
2080s Increased out‑migration 1,206 991 275 2,587 2,152 624
2020s Constant 370 311 149 413 347 167
2050s Constant 608 500 150 813 671 205
2080s Constant 733 603 167 1,573 1,309 379